Brexit means many things to many people.
Some think it’s devastating for the Northern Ireland economy; some think it’s the best thing since sliced (wheaten) bread; some think it’s a new breakfast cereal (Crunchy Nut Brexit is apparently very popular).
But really, nobody has been able to pinpoint for certain what will happen when the UK formally leaves the European Union and the best we can do is proffer a range of possibilities.
That’s particularly true when it comes to how Brexit will impact the job market, although some of the more learned economists out there are beginning to get an idea of what could happen under different scenarios.
Gareth Hetherington, Associate Director at the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC_ and a pretty sharp economist, is one of those who knows a thing or two about what might happen and he has published his findings in the organisation’s Summer 2017 Outlook.
In it, he points out that much will depend on what kind of deal is negotiated in the final divorce.
He said a damaging and poorly-managed Brexit combined with a squeeze in real incomes could see employment levels fall by 8,200 over the next 10 years, with manufacturing particularly impacted.
Clearly that’s pretty bad news and would take the local job market back to levels not seen for a number of years as firms pack up their backs and move out of Northern Ireland and exports crash.
But don’t get too downhearted just year because that is at the very low end of Mr Hetherington’s expectations.
Way up at the other end is an expected increase in employment levels of a masshooosive 87,500 by 2026 if a “trade-friendly smooth transition to Brexit” is negotiated, one which helps Northern Ireland’s economy perform on a par with the rest of the UK, something it tends to struggle to do in a normal scenario.
There’s obviously quite a difference between those two scenarios and you can draw your own conclusions as to which is more likely as the negotiations proceed.
Most likely, said the UUEPC report, is somewhere in between with around 28,800 jobs expected to be created in the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, Mr Hetherington also points to the wage gap between here and the rest of the UK.
The average full-time wage in Northern Ireland is £26,070 compared to £28,560 across GB; a gap of 8.7%. However, that gap reduces to just 3.6% if London is excluded from the analysis.
Should we be worried at our trailing status?
Maybe not.
UUEPC’s research shows average housing costs in Northern Ireland represents only 12% of total household spending compared to 22% in the UK.
In contrast, Northern Ireland consumers spend a much greater proportion of their household budgets on food, drink, clothes and communication.
Essentially our the lower cost of our homes means we’re able to enjoy spending money on other things.
So before you get upset at the disparity of your wage to that of your neighbours in GB, ask them what they pay in rent or mortgage a month.
Then go off and spend your money on a nice meal, a bottle of wine, a new outfit and a fancy phone.